March 23, 2016

Multinational Assessment of Accuracy of Equations for Predicting Risk of Kidney Failure: A Meta-analysis.

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Thirty-one cohorts participating in the CKD Prognosis Consortium, including 721,357 participants with CKD stages 3 to 5 in more than 30 countries spanning 4 continents, were studied to evaluate the accuracy of the kidney failure risk equations.  During a median follow-up of 4 years of 721,357 participants with CKD, 23,829 cases kidney failure were observed. The original risk equations achieved excellent discrimination across all cohorts (overall C statistic, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.89-0.92 at 2 years; C statistic at 5 years, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.86-0.90); discrimination in subgroups by age, race, and diabetes status was similar. Calibration was adequate in North American cohorts, but the original risk equations overestimated risk in some non-North American cohorts.

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